Russian Military Advances
The Russian military advances are closer to Ukraine. Social Media posts show submarines and amphibious landing ships in the Black Sea. They also reveal short-range ballistic missiles, tanks, and howitzers around Ukraine’s northeastern edges. Some of the videos come from official sources; most are from TikTok or YouTube. They are being analyzed by online observers and often complement satellite imagery.
There’s plenty of other evidence of the military build-up in the Belgorod region. Russian forces are also moving at night in the area showing tanks off-loaded from trains. The area around Voronezh also appears to be getting pretty crowded. A large collection of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles was filmed in the last couple of days from a passing train. Social media videos also featured the arrival of helicopters near the Ukrainian border.
Michael Kofman, the Russia analyst at CNA, notes that troops in Kursk “appear to be moving up to Belgorod with district-level artillery support. He says the 1st Guards Tank Army has started to move too — “presumably to a final staging area.” Of particular concern is the movement of convoys of Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles. They have a range of up to 250 miles (402 km) and have been spotted in recent satellite imagery.
Belarus
Russian and Belarusian troops began sizeable joint exercises last week near the Polish border, but some Russian forces are on the move many miles from where the exercises are taking place and have taken up positions close to where the borders of Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus meet. Russian weaponry — and ships — continue to close in on the Ukrainian border. Sites, where equipment had been pre-positioned more than 100 miles (161 kilometers) from the border, have been progressively emptied as units have moved forward.
The Russian military movement is concerning and it is even more frightening not knowing what the next move is.